Brain tumors: rise in Glioblastoma incidence in England 1995-2015 suggests adverse environmental or lifestyle factor

J Environ Public Health · 2018 · Harm · Moderate evidence

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HarmModerate evidencePaper 2147

The age-standardized incidence rate of glioblastoma multiforme more than doubled from 2.4 to 5.0 per 100,000 person-years between 1995 and 2015 in England, with annual cases rising from 983 to 2531. This rise was statistically significant and consistent acros…

Study snapshot

PublicationJ Environ Public Health · 2018

Study typeecological

Reported directionHarm

Evidence ratingModerate

Abstract

Brain tumors: rise in Glioblastoma incidence in England 1995-2015 suggests adverse environmental or lifestyle factor Alasdair Philips, Denis L. Henshaw, Graham Lamburn, and Michael O'Carroll. Brain tumours: rise in Glioblastoma Multiforme incidence in England 1995-2015 suggests an adverse environmental or lifestyle factor. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, in press. Highlights • A clear description of the changing pattern in incidence of brain tumour types • The study used extensive data from an official and recognised quality source • The study included histological and morphological information • The study identified a significant and concerning incidence time trend • Some evidence is provided to help guide future research into causal mechanisms Abstract Objective To investigate detailed trends in malignant brain tumour incidence over a recent time period. Methods UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) data covering 81,135 ICD10 C71 brain tumours diagnosed in England (1995-2015) were used to calculate incidence rates (ASR) per 100k person-years, age-standardised to the European Standard Population (ESP-2013). Results We report a sustained and highly statistically significant ASR rise in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) across all ages. The ASR for GBM more than doubled from 2.4 to 5.0, with annual case numbers rising from 983 to 2531. Overall, this rise is mostly hidden in the overall data by a reduced incidence of lower grade tumours. Conclusions The rise is of importance for clinical resources and brain tumour aetiology. The rise cannot be fully accounted for by promotion of lower-grade tumours, random chance or improvement in diagnostic techniques as it affects specific areas of the brain and only one type of brain tumour. Despite the large variation in case numbers by age, the percentage rise is similar across the age groups which suggests widespread environmental or lifestyle factors may be responsible. downloads.hindawi.com

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AI evidence extraction

Structured fields below were generated from the paper’s abstract and metadata to make the evidence easier to inspect. Automated extraction may be incomplete or incorrect; verify important details against the original paper.

Study typeecological

Effect directionharm

PopulationEngland population diagnosed with brain tumors 1995-2015

Sample size81135

ExposureNot supplied

Evidence strengthModerateConfidence: 70% · Peer reviewed: yes

Main findings

Outcomes measured

incidence rate of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM)

Limitations

Ecological study design limits causal inference
No direct measurement of specific environmental or lifestyle exposures
Potential confounding factors not controlled
Diagnostic improvements cannot be fully excluded but unlikely to explain findings

View raw extracted JSON

{
  "study_type": "ecological",
  "exposure": {
    "band": null,
    "source": null,
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    "sar_wkg": null,
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  },
  "population": "England population diagnosed with brain tumors 1995-2015",
  "sample_size": 81135,
  "outcomes": [
    "incidence rate of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM)"
  ],
  "main_findings": "The age-standardized incidence rate of glioblastoma multiforme more than doubled from 2.4 to 5.0 per 100,000 person-years between 1995 and 2015 in England, with annual cases rising from 983 to 2531. This rise was statistically significant and consistent across age groups, suggesting possible environmental or lifestyle factors.",
  "effect_direction": "harm",
  "limitations": [
    "Ecological study design limits causal inference",
    "No direct measurement of specific environmental or lifestyle exposures",
    "Potential confounding factors not controlled",
    "Diagnostic improvements cannot be fully excluded but unlikely to explain findings"
  ],
  "evidence_strength": "moderate",
  "confidence": 0.7,
  "peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
  "keywords": [
    "glioblastoma",
    "brain tumor incidence",
    "environmental factors",
    "lifestyle factors",
    "epidemiology",
    "England"
  ],
  "suggested_hubs": [
    {
      "slug": "environmental-exposure",
      "weight": 0.8,
      "reason": "Study suggests environmental or lifestyle factors may be responsible for increased glioblastoma incidence."
    }
  ]
}

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AI-extracted fields are generated from the abstract and metadata and may be incomplete or incorrect. This material is for informational purposes and is not medical advice.

Identifiers and source

DOI: Not supplied
PubMed: Not supplied

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