Mobile phone use and incidence of brain tumour histological types, grading or anatomical location: a population-based ecological study

2018 · No effect · Low evidence

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No effectLow evidencePaper 1938

Study snapshot

Publicationmanual · 2018

Study typeecological

Reported directionNo effect

Evidence ratingLow

Abstract

Mobile phone use and incidence of brain tumour histological types, grading or anatomical location: a population-based ecological study Karipidis K, Elwood M, Benke G, Sanagou M, Tjong L, Croft RJ. Mobile phone use and incidence of brain tumour histological types, grading or anatomical location: a population-based ecological study. BMJ Open. 2018 Dec 9;8(12):e024489. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024489. Strengths and limitations of this study * This study investigated incidence time trends for different brain tumour histological types, grading and anatomical location over different time periods. * The study compared the observed brain tumour incidence rates with modelled predicted incidence rates assuming a causal association with mobile phone use. * Mobile phone subscription data and information from surveys may not accurately represent mobile phone use patterns in adults. Abstract OBJECTIVE: Some studies have reported increasing trends in certain brain tumours and a possible link with mobile phone use has been suggested. We examined the incidence time trends of brain tumour in Australia for three distinct time periods to ascertain the influence of improved diagnostic technologies and increase in mobile phone use on the incidence of brain tumours. DESIGN: In a population-based ecological study, we examined trends of brain tumour over the periods 1982- 1992, 1993-2002 and 2003-2013. We further compared the observed incidence during the period of substantial mobile phone use (2003-2013) with predicted (modelled) incidence for the same period by applying various relative risks, latency periods and mobile phone use scenarios. SETTING: National Australian incidence registration data on primary cancers of the brain diagnosed between 1982 and 2013. POPULATION: 16 825 eligible brain cancer cases aged 20-59 from all of Australia (10 083 males and 6742 females). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual percentage change (APC) in brain tumour incidence based on Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: The overall brain tumour rates remained stable during all three periods. There was an increase in glioblastoma during 1993-2002 (APC 2.3, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.7) which was likely due to advances in the use of MRI during that period. There were no increases in any brain tumour types, including glioma (-0.6, -1.4 to 0.2) and glioblastoma (0.8, -0.4 to 2.0), during the period of substantial mobile phone use from 2003 to 2013. During that period, there was also no increase in glioma of the temporal lobe (0.5, -1.3 to 2.3), which is the location most exposed when using a mobile phone. Predicted incidence rates were higher than the observed rates for latency periods up to 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: In Australia, there has been no increase in any brain tumour histological type or glioma location that can be attributed to mobile phones. EXCERPT: In conclusion, we found no evidence that mobile phone use increased any brain tumour histological types or subtypes. There was an increase in the incidence of glioblastoma prior to the rapid increase in mobile phone use which was most likely due to improved diagnosis from MRI. Furthermore, there was no increase in gliomas of the temporal lobe, which is the most exposed location, during the period of substantial mobile phone use. The increase in gliomas of the temporal lobe and decrease in gliomas of unspecified location during the periods prior to substantial mobile phone use are in line with the theory of improved diagnosis from CT and MRI. Further, the predicted rates were higher than the observed rates for latency periods up to 15 years. These results do not support an association between mobile phone use and brain tumour, although the possibility of a small risk or a latency period of more than 15 years cannot be excluded. Future research should continue to investigate trends in brain tumour histological types, grading and anatomical location for a possible increase with a longer latency period. Open access paper: bmjopen-bmj-com.libproxy.berkeley.edu Note: This paper has significant methodological problems. Following are some of Alasdair Philips' comments about the paper: Omitting the older age groups is not justifiable. Stopping at age 59 misses out the main age-group with the largest rise in glioblastomas. (See my paper: hindawi.com ) and especially the linked Letter to the Editor and the Supplementary file.) Few of the Interphone studies had people over 60 and those that did, did not have a representative number of people over 60, the population with the most people who have used cellphones for the longest cumulative time period The tumor incidence data in this paper was age-standardized to the World Standard population which does not reasonably match the current age spectrum of higher income countries. The 65-74 age group population in Australia grew from 1.3 million in 2001 to 2.2 million in 2017, so even the Australian Standard Population (2001) is no longer appropriate. Tables 2 and 3 use all topographical regions and all ages 20-59. This will greatly reduce any rise (see my paper) that occurs in the 50-59 year olds. Better imaging for glioblastoma made little difference to diagnosing a glioblastoma as it an aggressive tumor; hardly anyone survives 3 years from initial diagnosis.

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AI evidence extraction

Structured fields below were generated from the paper’s abstract and metadata to make the evidence easier to inspect. Automated extraction may be incomplete or incorrect; verify important details against the original paper.

Study typeecological

Effect directionno_effect

PopulationAdults aged 20-59 in Australia with primary brain cancers (national cancer registry cases, 1982-2013)

Sample size16825

ExposureRF · Compared incidence trends across 1982-1992, 1993-2002, 2003-2013; modelling included latency periods up to 15 years

Evidence strengthLowConfidence: 78% · Peer reviewed: yes

Main findings

Overall brain tumour incidence rates were stable across 1982-1992, 1993-2002, and 2003-2013. Glioblastoma incidence increased in 1993-2002 (APC 2.3, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.7) and was described as likely due to increased MRI use; during 2003-2013 there were no increases in glioma (APC -0.6, 95% CI -1.4 to 0.2), glioblastoma (0.8, -0.4 to 2.0), or temporal lobe glioma (0.5, -1.3 to 2.3). Modelled predicted incidence rates assuming a causal association were higher than observed for latency periods up to 15 years.

Outcomes measured

Brain tumour incidence time trends by histological type
Glioma incidence
Glioblastoma incidence
Brain tumour anatomical location (including temporal lobe glioma)
Annual percentage change (APC) in incidence

Limitations

Ecological design (population-level trends; no individual-level exposure assessment stated)
Mobile phone subscription data and survey information may not accurately represent adult mobile phone use patterns
Predicted incidence comparisons depend on assumed relative risks, latency periods, and mobile phone use scenarios
Population restricted to ages 20-59 (older age groups not included)

View raw extracted JSON

{
  "study_type": "ecological",
  "exposure": {
    "band": "RF",
    "source": "mobile phone",
    "frequency_mhz": null,
    "sar_wkg": null,
    "duration": "Compared incidence trends across 1982-1992, 1993-2002, 2003-2013; modelling included latency periods up to 15 years"
  },
  "population": "Adults aged 20-59 in Australia with primary brain cancers (national cancer registry cases, 1982-2013)",
  "sample_size": 16825,
  "outcomes": [
    "Brain tumour incidence time trends by histological type",
    "Glioma incidence",
    "Glioblastoma incidence",
    "Brain tumour anatomical location (including temporal lobe glioma)",
    "Annual percentage change (APC) in incidence"
  ],
  "main_findings": "Overall brain tumour incidence rates were stable across 1982-1992, 1993-2002, and 2003-2013. Glioblastoma incidence increased in 1993-2002 (APC 2.3, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.7) and was described as likely due to increased MRI use; during 2003-2013 there were no increases in glioma (APC -0.6, 95% CI -1.4 to 0.2), glioblastoma (0.8, -0.4 to 2.0), or temporal lobe glioma (0.5, -1.3 to 2.3). Modelled predicted incidence rates assuming a causal association were higher than observed for latency periods up to 15 years.",
  "effect_direction": "no_effect",
  "limitations": [
    "Ecological design (population-level trends; no individual-level exposure assessment stated)",
    "Mobile phone subscription data and survey information may not accurately represent adult mobile phone use patterns",
    "Predicted incidence comparisons depend on assumed relative risks, latency periods, and mobile phone use scenarios",
    "Population restricted to ages 20-59 (older age groups not included)"
  ],
  "evidence_strength": "low",
  "confidence": 0.78,
  "peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
  "keywords": [
    "mobile phone",
    "brain tumour",
    "glioma",
    "glioblastoma",
    "temporal lobe",
    "incidence trends",
    "Australia",
    "ecological study",
    "MRI",
    "CT",
    "latency"
  ],
  "suggested_hubs": [
    {
      "slug": "mobile-phones-brain-tumors",
      "weight": 0.95,
      "reason": "Assesses brain tumour incidence trends and compares observed vs modelled incidence under mobile phone use scenarios."
    }
  ]
}

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AI-extracted fields are generated from the abstract and metadata and may be incomplete or incorrect. This material is for informational purposes and is not medical advice.

Identifiers and source

DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024489
PubMed: Not supplied

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