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Geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar activity enhance total and cardiovascular mortality risk in 263 U.S.

2019 · Mixed · Low evidence

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MixedLow evidencePaper 1710

Using a two-step meta-analysis of city-specific, season-stratified models, higher daily geomagnetic disturbance (Kp index) was significantly associated with increased total, CVD, and MI deaths. No positive significant association was found between Kp index an…

Study snapshot

Publicationmanual · 2019
Study typemeta_analysis
Reported directionMixed
Evidence ratingLow

Abstract

Geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar activity enhance total and cardiovascular mortality risk in 263 U.S. cities Zilli Vieira CL, Alvares D, Blomberg A, Schwartz J, Coull B, Huang S, Koutrakis P. Geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar activity enhance total and cardiovascular mortality risk in 263 U.S. cities. Environmental Health. 18(83). Sep 11, 2019. Abstract Background Short-term geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) driven by the quasi-periodic 11-year cycle of solar activity have been linked to a broad range of adverse health effects, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and total deaths. We conducted a large epidemiological study in 263 U.S. cities to assess the effects of GMD on daily deaths of total, CVD, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke. Methods We employed a two-step meta-analysis approach, in which we estimated city-specific and season- stratified mortality risk associated with a GMD parameter (Kp index) in 263 U.S. cities. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to assess whether effect modification of particulate matter (PM2.5) in the prior day changed Kp index effects on daily deaths after adjusting for confounders. Results We found significant association between daily GMD and total, CVD, and MI deaths. The effects were even stronger when we adjusted the models for 24-h PM2.5 for different seasons. For example, in the winter and fall one standard deviation of z-score Kp index increase was associated with a 0.13 and 0.31% increase in total deaths, respectively (Winter: p = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.24; Fall: p = 0.00001; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.4), without adjusting for PM2.5. The effects of GMD on total deaths were also observed in spring and summer in the models without PM2.5 (p = 0.00001). When the models were adjusted for PM2.5 the total deaths increased 0.47% in winter (p = 0.00001, 95% CI: 0.3 to 0.65) and by 0.23% in fall (p = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.37). The effects of GMD were also significant associated with MI deaths and CVD. No positive significant association were found between Kp and stroke. The GMD effects on deaths were higher than for 24 h-PM2.5 alone, especially in spring and fall. Conclusion Our results suggest that GMD is associated with total, CVD and MI deaths in 263 U. S cities. Increased mortality in the general population during GMD should be further investigated to determine whether those human physiological dynamics driven by variations in solar activity can be related to daily clinical cardiovascular observations. Open access paper: ehjournal.biomedcentral.com

Machine Enhanced Logic

AI evidence extraction

Structured fields below were generated from the paper’s abstract and metadata to make the evidence easier to inspect. Automated extraction may be incomplete or incorrect; verify important details against the original paper.

Study typemeta_analysis
Effect directionmixed
PopulationGeneral population in 263 U.S. cities (daily mortality counts)
Sample size263
Exposureshort-term (daily)
Evidence strengthLowConfidence: 74% · Peer reviewed: yes

Main findings

Using a two-step meta-analysis of city-specific, season-stratified models, higher daily geomagnetic disturbance (Kp index) was significantly associated with increased total, CVD, and MI deaths. No positive significant association was found between Kp index and stroke mortality. Associations for total deaths were reported as stronger after adjustment for prior-day 24-h PM2.5 in some seasons.

Outcomes measured

  • total mortality
  • cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality
  • myocardial infarction (MI) mortality
  • stroke mortality

Limitations

  • Observational design with potential residual confounding (confounders not fully specified in abstract)
  • Exposure metric limited to Kp index as a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance
  • Stroke outcome showed no positive significant association, indicating outcome-specific effects
View raw extracted JSON
{
  "study_type": "meta_analysis",
  "exposure": {
    "band": null,
    "source": "geomagnetic disturbances (solar activity)",
    "frequency_mhz": null,
    "sar_wkg": null,
    "duration": "short-term (daily)"
  },
  "population": "General population in 263 U.S. cities (daily mortality counts)",
  "sample_size": 263,
  "outcomes": [
    "total mortality",
    "cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality",
    "myocardial infarction (MI) mortality",
    "stroke mortality"
  ],
  "main_findings": "Using a two-step meta-analysis of city-specific, season-stratified models, higher daily geomagnetic disturbance (Kp index) was significantly associated with increased total, CVD, and MI deaths. No positive significant association was found between Kp index and stroke mortality. Associations for total deaths were reported as stronger after adjustment for prior-day 24-h PM2.5 in some seasons.",
  "effect_direction": "mixed",
  "limitations": [
    "Observational design with potential residual confounding (confounders not fully specified in abstract)",
    "Exposure metric limited to Kp index as a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance",
    "Stroke outcome showed no positive significant association, indicating outcome-specific effects"
  ],
  "evidence_strength": "low",
  "confidence": 0.74,
  "peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
  "keywords": [
    "geomagnetic disturbances",
    "solar activity",
    "Kp index",
    "mortality",
    "cardiovascular mortality",
    "myocardial infarction",
    "stroke",
    "PM2.5",
    "seasonal effects",
    "U.S. cities"
  ],
  "suggested_hubs": []
}
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AI-extracted fields are generated from the abstract and metadata and may be incomplete or incorrect. This material is for informational purposes and is not medical advice.

Identifiers and source

DOI: 10.1186/s12940-019-0516-0
PubMed: Not supplied

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