Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes

Environment International. · 2016 · Harm · Moderate evidence

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HarmModerate evidencePaper 1423

Study snapshot

PublicationEnvironment International. · 2016

Study typeecological

Reported directionHarm

Evidence ratingModerate

Abstract

Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes Frank de Vocht. Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls. Environment International. 97:100-107. December 2016. Highlights • English brain cancer subtypes incidences were compared to synthetic control trends. • No evidence of increases in GBM, glioma and parietal lobe neoplasms not predicted. • Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. • This corresponded to additional 35% increase, or 188 (95%CI 48-324) cases annually. • Tumour location and temporal associations correspond with mobile phone use as risk factor. Abstract Background Mobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985-2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual 'synthetic control' timeseries. Methods Annual 1985-2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15 year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual 'synthetic England' timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series. Results There is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the 'synthetic England' time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10 years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005-2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48-324) cases annually. Conclusions A causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe. sciencedirect.com Excerpts The annual incidence of malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, has been increasing faster than expected, with a period of 10 years post-1995 reflecting the earliest latency period when this additional increase was measurable. Post-2005 an additional increase of 35% (95%CI 9%:59%) was evident compared to the counterfactual time series in the 'synthetic England'; corresponding to an average of an additional 188 (95%CI 48-324) cases of malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe annually. Addition of mobile phone penetration in the models showed a reduction of 15% in the effect size for 5-year latency (Table 2), indicating observed increased incidence can, at least in part, by attributed to mobile phone use (Note that unfortunately longer latencies cannot be explored in these time series). These analyses indicate excess brain cancer risk is observed in the lobes where most of the electromagnetic energy is absorbed (depending on side of the head where the phone is held when calling) (Cardis et al., 2008), which has been observed previously (Barchana et al., 2012 and Khurana et al., 2009). As such, it does not specifically exclude a specific association with gliomas (if these occur in the temporal lobe), which was reported in Interphone (Interphone Study Group, 2010), and of which about one in three occur in the temporal lobe (Larjavaara et al., 2007). A stronger causal argument could have been made if these analyses could have been stratified by laterality, with ipsilateral RF exposure having been linked to increased cerebral blood flow (Huber et al., 2005) and glucose metabolism (Volkow et al., 2011), as well as to increased risk of glioma in the temporal lobe (Barchana et al., 2012 and Hardell and Carlberg, 2015), although not in all studies (Hartikka et al., 2009 and Larjavaara et al., 2011), but this was not possible. In summary, these analyses indicate that a causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized spatial and temporal associations, is related to an increased risk of developing a malignant neoplasm in the temporal lobe. More specifically, if the calculated population impact is interpreted as a causal effect and is completely contributed to mobile phone use, then the population impact is an additional 188 cases annually in England; corresponding to about 1700 cases (range 436 to 2918) in the period 2005-2014 that would not have occurred otherwise. For reference, this corresponds to 0.02%-0.12% of new cancers during this period. If the relative effect is interpreted as a population relative risk, then a very moderate 1.35 (95%CI 1.09:1.59) is observed after a minimum 10-year latency.

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AI evidence extraction

Structured fields below were generated from the paper’s abstract and metadata to make the evidence easier to inspect. Automated extraction may be incomplete or incorrect; verify important details against the original paper.

Study typeecological

Effect directionharm

PopulationEngland

Sample sizeNot supplied

ExposureRF · 1985-2014

Evidence strengthModerateConfidence: 70% · Peer reviewed: yes

Main findings

No evidence of increased incidence beyond expected trends was found for malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or parietal lobe neoplasms. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe increased faster than expected, with an estimated additional 35% increase corresponding to about 188 extra cases annually during 2005-2014, consistent with mobile phone use as a risk factor after a 10-year latency period.

Outcomes measured

malignant glioma
glioblastoma multiforme
malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe
malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe

Limitations

Ecological study design limits causal inference
Latency periods longer than 15 years could not be explored
Lack of data on laterality of exposure and tumor location
Potential confounding factors not fully controlled

View raw extracted JSON

{
  "study_type": "ecological",
  "exposure": {
    "band": "RF",
    "source": "mobile phone",
    "frequency_mhz": null,
    "sar_wkg": null,
    "duration": "1985-2014"
  },
  "population": "England",
  "sample_size": null,
  "outcomes": [
    "malignant glioma",
    "glioblastoma multiforme",
    "malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe",
    "malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe"
  ],
  "main_findings": "No evidence of increased incidence beyond expected trends was found for malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or parietal lobe neoplasms. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe increased faster than expected, with an estimated additional 35% increase corresponding to about 188 extra cases annually during 2005-2014, consistent with mobile phone use as a risk factor after a 10-year latency period.",
  "effect_direction": "harm",
  "limitations": [
    "Ecological study design limits causal inference",
    "Latency periods longer than 15 years could not be explored",
    "Lack of data on laterality of exposure and tumor location",
    "Potential confounding factors not fully controlled"
  ],
  "evidence_strength": "moderate",
  "confidence": 0.7,
  "peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
  "keywords": [
    "mobile phone",
    "brain cancer",
    "temporal lobe neoplasms",
    "glioma",
    "ecological study",
    "RF exposure"
  ],
  "suggested_hubs": [
    {
      "slug": "mobile-phone-exposure",
      "weight": 0.9,
      "reason": "Study focuses on mobile phone use and brain cancer risk."
    }
  ]
}

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AI-extracted fields are generated from the abstract and metadata and may be incomplete or incorrect. This material is for informational purposes and is not medical advice.

Identifiers and source

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PubMed: Not supplied

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